International Group Pool claims
In our last review, we could not discern strong reasons explaining why the IG Pool claims should have been so much lower in 2022 and 2023 than historically, even if 2023 was somewhat higher than the previous year. The 2024 policy year has returned not just to historical averages but has much in common with the record levels that we saw in 2020 and 2021.
With the exception of the 2022 policy year, the rising cost of Pool claims has been a challenge for all the IG clubs. While the average overall value of Pool claims (capped at US$90 million excess US$10 million) for the 10 years from 2015 to 2024 is US$274 million per year, the average has increased to US$335 million for the last five of those policy years, notwithstanding the low experience in 2022 and 2023. The 2024 policy year sees a return to the more general upward trend and the value of claims was higher than ever before with a 12-month point value of close to US$500 million.
The year has seen 15 claims notified at the 12-month point, five collisions, four FFO’s, three groundings, two wreck removals and a fire. As has been seen before, the volatility and high cost of admiralty claim types account for the bulk of the Pool’s exposure. The largest Pool claims are the Dali (Baltimore bridge allision) and our own claim in respect of the YM Witness.
NorthStandard reported five of these claims. The YM Witness (which concerns damage to container gantry cranes and a berth in Turkey) is estimated to be the largest of these. An incident for the Ultra Galaxy involved a grounding and subsequent wreck removal in South Africa, and a claim on the Vox Maxima arose out of a collision with the Marine Honour and subsequent pollution in Singapore. Finally, for the bluewater business, a claim on the Tarif arose out of contact with a jetty during berthing in Ulsan. The fifth Pool claim for NorthStandard relates to the Knidos, a Coastal & Inland entry which was involved in a collision and subsequently sank.
All of these claims fall into the category of admiralty incidents, although there is little discernible pattern amongst them. The Ultra Galaxy claim arose as the vessel took a more circuitous route avoiding the Red Sea, and in that respect there was a geopolitical element to this particular incident. For the most part, the Pool claims have been in respect of long-standing members of the club, sometimes with entries shared with other clubs. It is in the nature of P&I insurance that one club can have such an experience in any given policy year.
The mechanisms of the IG Pool and collective reinsurance arrangements continue to protect shipowners and clubs from the exposure associated with large claims when they arise. Our five claims declared to the Pool is certainly not unprecedented for a club of our size, nor indicative of any particular issue within our underwriting book. It is nonetheless a significant drag on our combined ratio and financial results this year.
Whilst we can reasonably hope that NorthStandard will not have such a high share of Pool claims in the next policy year, it would be imprudent not to expect that the Pool will have significant claims over the coming years. Whether this is the case for the forthcoming year is impossible to predict when the claims are so few and unpredictable in nature. However, the long-term trend is upwards as would be expected given the scale of global shipping and the challenges and liabilities it faces today.
Retained claims
While retained claim numbers for the 2024 policy year were higher in comparison to the 2023 year, they were in line with other recent policy years. The club was, however, faced with a small number of high value claims which have a significant overall impact, although the club’s reinsurance arrangements mean that the retained value of claims remains in line with the 2023 policy year.
Across the NorthStandard P&I bluewater business there are 30 claims estimated in excess of US$1 million for the 2024 policy year, compared to an average of 36 in the five policy years up to and including the 2024 policy year. The largest claim on chartered business is a claim on the YM Mobility (an explosion during loading operations in China) which has a significant estimate, but where reinsurance (outside the IG Pool) caps the club’s overall exposure.
There has been an increase in admiralty claims in the 2024 policy year. As noted earlier, admiralty claims can be both high value and volatile, with the potential to directly impact overall policy year results in this way. On a positive note, there has been a reduction in the value of personal injury claims in the 2024 policy year, down to their lowest level in the last five years.
Fresh challenges facing the P&I industry over the next period will be the potential for the policies of the Trump administration to create (in the short term) unusual or unanticipated areas of liability or dispute. For example, cargoes abandoned on board or not collected after discharge because tariffs are not paid; delays to discharge of cargo while cargo interests re-negotiate and, in the medium term, the potential for more permanent changes in trading patterns to impact the claims landscape. Compliance with international sanctions and the impact of the Ukrainian conflict continue to pose administrative and operational challenges for both members and the club.